17.07.08
Every silver lining has a cloud
Rail minister Tom Harris likes getting out of bed every morning. That’s what he told the Institute of Economic Affairs recently.
That’s because he is presiding over an era of growth in the railways which has seen passenger numbers soar by 40% to 1.13bn journeys a year – the greatest number since 1946 when the network was twice the size. Around 22,000 services run on weekdays – up from 17,000 at the time of privatisation. Rail freight levels have also increased by 60% over the past decade.
The future looks bright for rail, too. Crossrail has been given the go ahead with £16 billion of funding from government and business. Major projects planned between 2009 and 2014 include the £2.6bn upgrade of the former Thameslink route, the £455m redevelopment of Reading Station and a £234m fund for small improvements costing less than £5m. And Network Rail has announced that it will be conducting a strategic review into the case for building new rail lines across the network.
With the price of petrol soaring and concerns about the environment already driving motorists onto public transport, demand for rail can only increase. Or can it?
There is evidence that more people are switching to bus than rail. More than 10% of people surveyed by Stagecoach Group recently have changed their mode of transport in the last three years as public concern about climate change continues to grow in the UK. But of those who had previously used the car, 36% had switched to the bus, 30% now walked and only 5% had changed to train.
The study of more than 4,000 consumers found that 47% of respondents said they were using their car less, with 36% stating an increased use of buses and 19% more use of trains.
Not so long ago, people assumed the price of property could only go up. With the construction industry, financial services and retail sectors in particular already suffering the effects of an economic downturn, the signs are that this is unlikely to be just a recession but a Marks and Spencer recession from which few sectors of the economy will be immune.
To fulfil its green transport vision, the government must ensure rail is affordable so it can compete effectively with air and bus travel. A prolonged economic downturn could precipitate a fall in demand for rail travel which would squeeze TOCs and put pressure on them to increase fares which would further reduce demand.
It must also commit to the development of a high speed rail network and a programme of electrification. Ruth Kelly may well have recently said “the business and environmental case for electrification is growing fast” and “we are going to step up our efforts through a cross-industry working group to re-examine the business case for electrification” but I’m not holding my breath.
As Guido del Mese of the European Union Committee of the International Association of Public Transport said recently: “Politicians have to accept their responsibility and provide adequate funding for their goals.
“For a long time, we have advocated that taxes be earmarked for the benefit of public transport, such as a part of the revenue governments receive from fuel taxes. The current context of massive increases in oil prices reinforces the appropriateness of this proposal. We therefore once again call on governments to earmark funds for the development of alternative, more energy-efficient transport modes, in particular public transport.”
Let’s hope Tom Harris is still enjoying getting up in the morning in 12 months time.
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