Rail industry plots route to sustainable future

Some groundbreaking “foresight and scenarios research” is set to support the rail industry to make better long-term strategic decisions and ensure its sustainable development in crucial areas where the future seems complex or uncertain.

The research was designed to enable the industry to answer the question: ‘What are the potential futures for the rail industry which will affect its operating environment and therefore its ability to deliver a sustainable industry between now and 2040?’

The work forms part of the Sustainable Rail Programme, a future-looking cross-industry initiative led by executive / director-level representatives from Network Rail, train operating companies, rolling stock leasing companies (ROSCOs), Railway Industry Association (RIA), Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC), Department for Transport (DfT), Office of Rail Regulation (ORR) as well as Transport for London (TfL), Transport Scotland, RSSB and the Railway Forum. The programme, which has become a driving force for future activity on sustainable development, is facilitated by RSSB.

A series of intensive workshops exploring the external factors that will influence the industry over the long-term resulted in the development of four potential scenarios – pictures of the future assuming different levels of travel and policy intervention. Key issues for rail include whether climate change will force people to travel less and rely on telecommunications more. What kind of energy supply mix will be on offer? Would personal carbon allowances make travel environmentally expensive or will rail’s low carbon profile increase its popularity? Will cheap overseas flights be a thing of the past – increasing rail travel to UK-based holiday resorts?

The real lessons came in the final workshop where stakeholders used the scenarios to identify the actions the industry could initiate in “the here and now” that would have the greatest impact. These include the importance of embedding sustainability under the skin of the industry and ensuring it is nimble-footed to address present day challenges – such as taking a whole-life, whole system approach and improving the quality of the whole journey, including the non-rail component. A credible power strategy based on less and greener energy is also fundamental.

Some aspects of this strategic agenda are already being taken forward and some of the thinking has contributed directly to key government and industry documents including the Government’s developing green paper, “Towards a Sustainable Transport System.”
The work also provides the key building blocks for the next step in the Sustainable Rail Programme - to agree Sustainable Development principles for the rail industry and to agree how best to support the industry in taking the findings of the foresight and scenarios research forward.

Len Porter, chair of the Sustainable Development Steering Group commented: “This is cutting edge research which is the result of key stakeholders engaging in a single strategic conversation about delivering a sustainable future for our railway, as part of a wider transport agenda. The outputs also offer an excellent stand-alone resource for individual organisations wishing to explore the drivers of change or the implications of the scenarios with respect to their own business.”

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