28.02.14
Size of UK rail fleet may need to double in next 30 years
The industry’s rolling stock strategy has been updated, highlighting again just how many trains are needed over the coming years – an average of between eight and 12 needing to be delivered every week for the next 30 years.
The second Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for the Rail Industry, a year on from the first, has been welcomed by rail minister Stephen Hammond. It was produced through cross-industry collaboration by rolling stock owners, operator owning groups and Network Rail
Its key messages are:
• Based on future passenger demand an increase in the size of the fleet of between 53% and 99% will be required over the next 30 years
• The proportion of vehicles using electric traction will rise from 69% today to over 90% in 30 years’ time
• Between 13,000 and 19,000 new electric vehicles will be required over the period, with an average of between eight and 12 needing to be delivered every week
• Around 3,050 new electric vehicles will need to be delivered by April 2019, with just 20% or 600 still to be ordered
• The average build rate of 12 vehicles per week that this represents contrasts with an average of just four per week in the five years to April 2014
It suggests that a commitment to a further electrification programme during CP6 2019-2024 “could help drive value for money in the sector by increasing confidence among investors and the supply chain”.
But it adds: “This analysis illustrates that a completely steady new build programme for rolling stock is unlikely ever to occur. Further peaks in demand for new build vehicles will occur as a direct consequence of refranchising timescales, where decisions to procure new rolling stock will, in many cases, be triggered by franchise award. Nevertheless, the forward projections of rolling stock fleet sizes offered by the RSS, combined with an early commitment to a continuing programme of electrification, should provide a greater degree of predictability about orders for new electric vehicles beyond CP5. This can help manufacturers to optimise production capacity and associated costs.”
The authors want TOCs and ROSCOs to lead the process, not the DfT.
Richard Brown, chairman of the Rolling Stock Strategy Steering Group, said: “The growth in demand for rail travel is set to continue and meeting it with the most suitable and cost efficient rolling stock is vital to maximising the railway’s benefits to our economy, local communities and the environment. The updated rolling stock strategy sets out future potential demand but also poses important challenges for the industry.
“Working with government and Network Rail, train operators and leasing companies are in the best position to ensure that a whole-life, whole-system approach is adopted to rolling stock. With billions of pounds set to be invested in the rail industry over the coming years, this will ensure that value for money and benefits for passengers are maximised.”
The document also reveals some slippage in delivery timetables, not all of which have been publicly announced:
• Completion of deliveries of the Crossrail fleet will occur in the early months of CP6 because full implementation of the Crossrail timetable will not occur until December 2019.
• The East Coast phase 2 IEP trains will be delivered in the first year of CP6.
• Full implementation of electrification of the MML is now proposed by Network Rail for December 2020.
A full analysis of the updated rolling stock strategy will be available in the print edition of RTM.
(Library image: Alvey& Towers)
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