Comment

Without HS2, can Britain ever hope to be truly connected?

Jim Steer, director of Greengauge 21 and co-founder of the High Speed Rail Industry Leaders Group, outlines the key messages in its new report.

Those looking to form their own view on HS2 are not short of information. A simple scan of newspapers or a Google search will bring up reams of fact, fiction and conjecture. The need, or otherwise, for the project has been a high-profile media football for four years since the coalition government first announced its commitment to the line in 2010.

However, in spite of ongoing questioning and scrutiny of the project from certain quarters, it has not faltered in the parliamentary and judicial process. In the most recent test of parliamentary support in November 2013, the Paving Bill passed resoundingly by 350 votes to 34. The scale of the victory does not, however, mean that obstacles do not remain.

It is therefore important that the case for HS2 continues to be made. It is also equally important to consider the consequences for Britain should we decide not to build it. In identifying what the country would lose if we abandon HS2, we can assess how crucial the project is for the UK. Let’s not lose sight of what the line will mean for millions of people up and down the country, from new long-term jobs, to the development of cutting-edge skills; from closer socio-economic connections between our biggest cities to a renewed, more resilient, transport network.

But, without HS2, how can Britain ever hope to be truly connected?

It is with this in mind that the High Speed Rail Industry Leaders Group (HSR ILG) recently published a report examining exactly what Britain might look like if we fail to build HS2. Not only have we considered what would happen to the funding committed to the project, we also consider the consequences of cancellation for transport as a whole, for inward investment into the UK and, ultimately the wider UK economy.

The consequences for funding

If the project were to be cancelled, it would not be a choice for the transport secretary to decide how to reallocate the money. This task would be for Treasury. Only a fraction of the £42.6bn assigned to HS2 would probably be reallocated to the Department for Transport, with an even smaller fraction earmarked for the UK’s rail network.

As our report makes plain, it is more likely that the HS2 budget would be split between re-deployed capital expenditure on projects of a smaller scale, and on a write-down of national debt. There are no other transport schemes under consideration with the same scale of economic benefit. Therefore the limited additional funds that might be allocated to the rail network – we calculated just £0.67bn over the period of close to 20 years of expected expenditure on HS2 – would be quite modest; especially if put in the context of the DfT’s spending programme of £73bn over the next six years.

The impact on transport

As well as this impact on funding, huge and irreplaceable benefits to the national transport system would be lost if HS2 were abandoned.

Some switch of investment to the main lines that HS2 would have relieved would be unavoidable given their capacity issues and their importance to the country and the network as a whole. With an increased call on investment monies for the main lines, there would have to be cutbacks elsewhere – on less busy sections of the network, and in rural areas. There would be increased disruption with none of the benefits of HS2.

Worsening standards of reliability would result as lines are used to absolutely maximum safe intensity and greater levels of overcrowding as the population, and train patronage, continues to grow. Ultimately this would produce pressure to increase fares in the peaks (to ‘manage demand’), whilst the availability of deep discounted fares on longer distance services will be reduced.

Without HS2, the whole rail network and its growing passenger base will suffer under increasing pressure. Short-term solutions will be just that, and growth in use of the rail network will start to falter.

The impacts on the wider economy

HS2 will be transformational for our economy, especially in areas across the north of England, and so it is important to also note what we risk turning our backs on if HS2 were cancelled. Confidence in Britain’s ability to carry out big projects effectively will be lost if HS2 is stalled. With slower and less reliable rail services, and more congested roads, we would become an inefficient and increasingly less popular country in which to do business. Equally, London – so crucial to our wider economy and international standing – would be stifled, unable to expand its labour markets at affordable prices.

Crucially, however, we would lose the opportunity to regenerate the cities of the Midlands and the North and rebalance our economy. Right now, the development market in the Midlands and the North is sluggish. Investment appetites for these regions remain low and will remain so without important upgrades in infrastructure.

This is keenly recognised by the government, and, thankfully, by Sir David Higgins. In his report last month (more on page 54) he rightly and explicitly recognised the importance of highlighting the wider economic development role that HS2 has to fulfil. Higgins has, incisively, shown how the line should be delivered to the UK, in a way which will not only help to contain costs, but to accelerate
the benefits for the Midlands, the North and North Wales.

It is imperative that government at both local and national levels, alongside business, capitalises on the opportunity HS2 offers. Lord Deighton’s Growth Taskforce, set up in summer 2013 to advise the government on how best to maximise the benefits associated with HS2, aptly demonstrated in its report last month how cities can maximise these opportunities.

The report and recommendations hit the nail on the head. HS2 is more than a railway. It is an opportunity to rebalance and rejuvenate Britain like no other project, and the series of measures suggested in the report will help do just that. From skills development to urban regeneration and economic growth, HS2’s scope to benefit and transform Britain is without precedent.

Others are beginning to take note

Increasingly, the government and the rail industry are not alone in realising the line’s benefits. Right across the country, regions are clamouring to include themselves in the project’s development.

Following the news that HS2 is to have its own Further Education College to train engineers, northern regions jumped to offer to host it. With a young population, Birmingham’s city council is one body that has realised how important the skills development and apprenticeship programme will be to the city and to the West Midlands. With 38% of its population under the age of 24, the region’s young population would be set to reap the benefits particularly keenly. Elsewhere, Robert Goodwill MP, in an open letter to his Yorkshire constituents, similarly called for the region to throw its support behind the college.

In other areas, the clamour for a station along the line has been equally vocal. Stoke-on-Trent City Council has recently put £250,000 into its campaign to host a station (pictured below).

Birmingham announced its ‘masterplan’ for the Curzon Street station (see page 148), and Manchester has examined the impact of multi-million pound investment around Piccadilly station (see page 58).

It is clear the UK is increasingly starting to appreciate how transformative HS2 can be for towns and cities along its route and beyond.

Of course, without HS2, these prospects would be absent. The regions simply cannot hope to draw investment of the same scale.

It is up to all of us to make the most of this unique opportunity. Quite clearly, it is not something the UK can afford to miss. As we’ve been keen to make clear, the benefits HS2 will provide do not begin and end with the transport network; abandoning HS2 will
signal Britain’s reluctance to invest in its regions, its failure to prompt investment from elsewhere, and the loss of a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rebalance the economic geography of the UK.

Abandoning the project now will mean we have to revisit the same problems and implement a similar solution at a later date and at a much higher cost. No-one can want to see this happen.

We stand fully behind HS2. Everyone should do the same so we can press on and build one of the most exciting, ambitious and important projects in this country since Victorian times.

High Speed Rail Industry Leaders Group members

Atkins

Alstom

Bechtel

CH2MHill

Hitachi

Keolis

Parsons Brinckerhoff

Railway Industry Association

Siemens

Associate members: Network Rail; UK Steel; Birmingham Centre for Railway Research and Education

Tell us what you think – have your say below or email [email protected]