Latest Rail News

18.06.12

Scottish passenger forecasts ‘underestimated’

Passenger demand is being consistently underestimated in Scotland, a recent rail conference heard.

Railfuture, which organised the event, says the figures have been “woefully inadequate”. Rail re-openings have boosted ridership and exceeded passenger forecasts again and again, leading to concern that some schemes have not been developed due to inaccurate predictions in their business cases.

Passenger demand for the Stirling– Alloa line was originally predicted as 85,000 when the business case was developed. This was first revised to 155,000, then 400,000 once the lined opened – which was exceeded by the end of the first year of operation in 2008.

Railfuture conference chairman Jerry Alderson said: “The message that came out of the conference is that we’re really underestimating patronage, and all the openings inScotlandhave proved this. They opened Larkhall Milngavie, and it was a success, they opened Airdrie Bathgate, and it was a success, they opened Stirling Alloa and it was a success. Three out of three.

“Some of the estimates have been woefully inadequate and potentially schemes have not gone ahead because the consultants have underestimated patronage.

“Our own experience backs this up. We travelled from Alloa to Edinburghon Friday night and it was full, standing room only, and our fellow passengers told us this was a regular occurrence. The Stirling-Alloa service is currently hourly and they’re proposing to make it half hourly, to cope with demand.

“We have the evidence of how successful rail re-openings have been inScotlandand how quickly lines they can be built from scratch – not one of them took more than two years to construct after powers had been granted – and there’s no reason why this success can’t be repeated south of the border.”

Tell us what you think – have your say below, or email us directly at opinion@railtechnologymagazine.com

Comments

There are no comments. Why not be the first?

Add your comment

 

related

Rail industry Focus

View all News

Comment

The challenge of completing Crossrail

05/07/2019The challenge of completing Crossrail

With a new plan now in place to deliver Crossrail, Hedley Ayres, National Audit Office manager, major projects and programmes, takes a look at ho... more >
Preparing the industry to deliver trains for the future

04/07/2019Preparing the industry to deliver trains for the future

The move to decarbonise the rail network involves shifting to cleaner modes of traction by 2050. David Clarke, technical director at the Railway ... more >

'the sleepers' blog

NPR, TRU & Fleetwood Mac

18/10/2019NPR, TRU & Fleetwood Mac

Switch up your playlist with the first #WeAreRTM podcast, gain exclusive insight into the leaders running the rail industry their opinions on recent headlines, visions for the future and meet the personalities behind the job titles. It's no... more >
read more blog posts from 'the sleeper' >

Interviews

Andrew Haines, CE of Network Rail, tells BBC News his organisation could issue future rail franchises

24/06/2019Andrew Haines, CE of Network Rail, tells BBC News his organisation could issue future rail franchises

Andrew Haines, the Chief Executive of Network Rail, has told the Today programme on Radio 4's BBC’s flagship news programme that he would not rule out his organisation issuing future r... more >
Malcolm Holmes, executive director of West Midlands Rail Executive, announced as TCR Midlands speaker in Birmingham

24/06/2019Malcolm Holmes, executive director of West Midlands Rail Executive, announced as TCR Midlands speaker in Birmingham

Ahead of his appearance, Malcolm Holmes spoke with Rail Technology Magazine about what key leaders in the industry were doing to improve rail in the Midlands. He said: “It’s very... more >