19.02.08
Getting on the right track
Despite a claimed commitment to tackling climate change, the government are still doing little to encourage a modal shift towards more environmentally sustainable modes of transport, says Norman Baker, shadow secretary of state for transport for the Liberal Democrats
Over the New Year the railway experienced a real low. Engineering works planned for the West Coast Main Line over the holiday period overran significantly, wreaking havoc with the journeys of thousands of passengers. On the same day, passengers found out that their fares had gone up by as much as 14.5%.
This was, undeniably, a particularly bad week for the railway and Network Rail will inevitably have a lot of explaining do in the course of the current investigation into the fiasco that is being undertaken by the Office of Rail Regulation. That said, this was only one example of the many troubles affecting the railway, thanks to the government’s lack of vision and lack of investment.
Since 1997, train delays have doubled, services have been cut, overcrowding has worsened, the ticketing system has become increasingly complex and fare prices have risen way beyond inflation, with passengers in the UK now paying on average the highest fares in Europe.
While the engineering problems over the New Year were particularly catastrophic, the negative impact of engineering works can be seen all year around. Indeed, the frequency of disruptive engineering works, whether they overrun or not, appears to have been increasing markedly in recent years. Where 15 years ago, disruptive works were the exception rather than the rule, now hardly a weekend goes by where rail services are not significantly interrupted by works up and down the network. Some of this can be put down to the decision taken by Railtrack to end single-line working. That excessive decision now needs to be reversed.
Even when the railways are technically working well there is still a fundamental lack of capacity. Major bottlenecks around the country, such as at Birmingham New Street, are hindering more flexible timetabling and a shortage of rolling stock is preventing train lengthening and the provision of more seats. The recent government announcement on 1300 new carriages is welcome but in reality it only buys a bit of time.
In a way, these are problems of success. Passenger numbers are rising 6% a year, twice the rate assumed in the government’s 2007 White Paper. Indeed, over the past decade, passenger miles travelled have risen by over 40%, the highest growth rate in Europe. Freight travel has also been increasing, with a doubling of freight traffic predicted for the next 20 years.
Unfortunately, the White Paper fails to grasp the nettle and acknowledge the extent of the increase in network capacity that is required to meet growing demand. While it tentatively shuffles in the right direction, the White Paper’s target for increasing rail capacity is based on a growth of only 22% up to 2014 whereas the government’s most recent forecasts, revealed in a parliamentary answer to me, predict a 44% growth in passenger numbers by 2015.
This is less surprising than it might be considering the recent revelation in The Times that the Department for Transport’s forecasts are all based around the flawed assumption that the oil price will be around $50 a barrel up to 2025, even though the price has already peaked at twice that figure. And, as oil prices rise and car travel becomes more expensive, it is inevitable that overcrowding on the railways is set to worsen.
What is more, despite a claimed commitment to tackling climate change, the government are still doing little to encourage a modal shift towards more environmentally sustainable modes of transport. Figures I have uncovered show that, since 1997, rail fares have gone up by 7%, while the cost of motoring has fallen by 8.5%. There is even the suspicion, in some quarters, that keeping fares high is a method of deterring passengers in order to eke out capacity and meet targets.
The government’s official stance is now one of “modal neutrality”. What nonsense! This is not a policy, but an absence of one.
The reinvigoration of the railway is the key to a successful low carbon transport future. Investing in a comfortable, reliable and accessible seven-day railway is vital for the social, economic and environmental wellbeing of the country.
After all, the current level of road travel is quite simply unsustainable. Road transport is annually responsible for 92% of all emissions from transport in the UK, and congestion levels on our roads are up 12% since Labour came to power. Air travel is even more environmentally nightmarish. Since 1990, the proportion of carbon emissions from aviation has more than doubled and is scheduled to rise by up to 83 % on 2002 levels by 2020. Rail on the other hand produces less in the way of emissions per passenger mile than car or air and, tonne for tonne, rail freight produces 90% less carbon than road transport.
In addition to the evident environmental benefits of investing in the railway, recent studies looking at the comparative capacity benefit per £1m spend have shown that train lengthening and resignalling is better value for money, providing nearly four times the capacity increase of the same sum spent on building or widening existing roads.
Then there are the economic gains to be had from the reduction in journey times that rail can deliver. UK cities are currently among the slowest in Europe but the Eddington Report estimated that a mere 5% reduction in travel time would deliver £2.5bn in savings.
What we therefore need is a programme of increased investment that directly reflects both the sharp increases in passenger numbers and the need to further encourage a modal shift from cars to rail.
This is why the Lib Dems are proposing to double investment in the railways, by creating a Future Transport Fund financed by a toll on road freight, according to emissions and a climate charge on internal flights. This Fund would catalyse public transport improvements by adding a potential £12 billion of support in addition to the £9.8 billion network grant from 2009-14.
Using this Fund, we would invest in the railways by removing bottlenecks, lengthening trains, funding light rail schemes and re-opening key sections of closed line.
This investment would also fund a new high speed north-south rail line, HS2, thereby undermining the need for domestic flights, one of the fastest growing sources of carbon. HS2 would bring the additional benefits of freeing capacity for both local passenger services and rail freight.
The key issue in all of this is the urgency of the need for greater investment – we need to invest now. Lead-in periods for major infrastructure projects are long and if the government stubbornly only decides in 2014 to go ahead with major schemes we will, all in all likelihood, have to wait another decade before these are actually up and running. In the meantime it will be impossible to meet the demands caused by overcrowding and people will be forced into their cars, or into ever over-crowded train carriages, with all the consequences for the battle against climate change.
If we fail to modernise our rail infrastructure there will be detrimental environmental and economic consequences in the future. Without substantial new investment today, we will not have the 21st century rail network that future generations need.
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