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Future demand could require 90% increase in electric fleet

A group of rail industry experts has published a forecast for the potential requirement for rolling stock over the next 30 years.

The Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy sets out a range of scenarios for the future size and type of fleet that will be required across the network. 

There could be demand for between 13,000 and 19,000 new electric vehicles by 2042, compared to around 8,500 electric vehicles today. This would increase the proportion of fleet made up of electric vehicles from 68% to 90%. The increase in non-electric vehicles could be between 400 and 800.

The group, which has set out the strategy consists of ATOC, the three ROSCOs – Angel Trains, Eversholt Rail Group and Porterbrook Leasing – and Network Rail, and is chaired by Richard Brown.

Michael Roberts, chief executive of ATOC, said: “The boom in passenger journeys heralds a bright future for the railways. A long-term rolling stock strategy helps the industry prepare for that future and underpins franchising as the best way to drive efficient delivery of fleet which meets passengers’ needs.”

Malcolm Brown, CEO of Angel Trains, on behalf of the three rolling stock companies involved with the report, said: “Rightly, the three rolling stock companies have been a corner stone in the development of the strategy to meet passenger demands for the next 30 years.

“The businesses will actively compete with each other to invest in existing and new rolling stock, having already secured over £10 billion of investment since rail privatisation. This will ensure the UK has one of the youngest train fleets in Europe.”

Paul Plummer, Network Rail group strategy director, said: “This strategy marks the first time that the long-term rolling stock implications of passenger growth and infrastructure upgrades such as electrification and HS2 have been modelled and considered together.

“Our investment programme will increase capacity on some of the busiest part of the network, enabling more people than ever before to travel by train. The approach set out in this strategy will ensure the industry works together to deliver a bigger and better value railway for Britain.”

For more on the Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy, see the Feb/March edition of RTM.

Tell us what you think – have your say below, or email us directly at [email protected]


DW Down Under   26/03/2013 at 02:51

I've read the Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy report. There are at least three areas that require comment, and I trust this is a suitable medium by which those comments might reach the relevant people: 1) fuel types for self-propelled vehicles. The assumption in the report would seem to be that only diesel engines are applicable. This type of engine is being forced out of the market by regulation. The strategy needs to refer to the appropriate R&D to overcome this. Some potential avenues of amelioration include: a) use of commercially produced alocohol fuels (where the principal emission issue is related to carbon); or b) the use of combustible gases in liquified or compressed forms; including but not limited to: i) LPG ii) CNG iii) LNG iv) Hydrogen Each of these fuels is more combustible than diesel and raises safety issues and additional safe-handling costs. But they should be discussed as a means of ameliorating the consequences of ever-tightening regulation of diesels. 2) The impact of loading gauge on individual vehicle and train capacity. This analysis is needed to inform the capital works programmes which currently target additional route clearance for freight. Additional route clearance for wider or taller passenger cars have the capacity to yield substantial dividends in train capacity and efficiency in the use of platform accommodation (I've coined the expression "volumetric efficiency" to describe this: how many passengers per metre train length can be carried); 3) As materials technology has progressed, the industry's ability to shape vehicles to optimally fit their operating environment while yielding maximum internal usable space has made much ground. The 2007ts for the Victoria Line is an illustration of this direction. In the planning horizon being analysed, I submit that dwell-efficient "double-deck" designs to suit a significant part of the heavily loaded PiXC sections of the national network could be forthcoming. These might not be able to be "universal," but with a large mileage electrified, should have an adequate cascade regime available over the planning horizon. I have already discussed the DD concepts with RSSB and others and would welcome an opportunity to share my work with the strategy team. The editor has my e-mail address. I commend these additional items to the attention of Members and other interested parties. DW down under

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