05.09.16
Rail industry craves certainty post-Brexit
Source: RTM Aug/Sep 16
Jim Steer, director of Greengauge 21, reflects on the recent changes at the DfT, the future of HS2 and its routes, and the need for certainty from the government.
Ten years ago, Chris Grayling was shadow transport secretary, looking at conventional high-speed rail (‘with TGV-type trains’), Maglev and a dedicated new freight line. While he moved on, his successor in the shadow role, Theresa Villiers, announced at the Conservative Party conference in 2008 a commitment to large-scale government funding of a conventional high-speed line linking London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. It would be a matter of weeks before Andrew Adonis would switch roles in government to transport minister, and he launched HS2 Ltd in January 2009. So Grayling knows about high-speed rail: he was there at its birth.
Supporters of HS2 can, therefore, take comfort in his appointment as transport secretary, along with that of Andrew Jones as the minister with specific responsibility for HS2. They have said there will be no change in government policy on HS2. And yet, this is a very new government (with only four ministers retaining their pre-referendum posts) and with a prime minister who brings a very different style, as ministers were to discover with the last-minute call to review the Hinkley Point C nuclear power station plan.
Smoothing out HS2’s route problems
Meanwhile, one of the outstanding problems in the definition of HS2 – its position in South Yorkshire – has changed. While it will be for Grayling to decide this autumn, HS2 Ltd has recommended dropping its preferred route announced in January 2013. Instead of a station at Meadowhall (an out-of-town shopping centre where the M1 crosses the Don Valley) there is to be provision for connections to the existing city centre station in Sheffield: excellent news for those who see strengthened city (and city centre) economies as the right basis for land use development. And the whole route through South Yorkshire is shifted eastwards. HS2 Ltd says it has made a major saving on project cost.
In effect, HS2 Ltd is saying that the more easterly route is better value for money: slightly quicker, and less expensive. It would, one suspects, have chosen this route in the first place were it not for its idea of a station at Meadowhall (bitterly opposed by Sheffield City Council and others). And now it has escaped the cost of providing an HS2 station in South Yorkshire: any works needed at Sheffield (Midland) station will apparently be for others to fund, since the HS2 services there will operate with ‘classic compatible trains’.
One of several positive drivers for the change in position was a wish to accommodate Transport for the North’s aim of linking the city centres of Sheffield and Leeds with a 30-minute journey time. HS2 has spare capacity on its Phase 2 limbs – a legacy of the decision to opt for a Y-shaped network, and this looks to be a good opportunity to increase the benefits and further strengthen the HS2 investment case.
There will be the usual local arguments about the alignment change, no doubt with the support of constituency MPs. But does the new HS2 Ltd position here signal a wider change in its thinking about the project?
A central choice in high-speed rail design is whether to create a free-standing railway or to fashion connections with the existing ‘classic’ railway to allow through running. HS2 has been developed as the latter, but HS2 Ltd often seems to pretend otherwise, quoting the advantages in respect of the larger profile trains that are possible, for example.
The revised preference in South Yorkshire tilts the overall concept towards through running. The case for a small separate fleet of classic compatible trains, restricted to self-contained routes – and there will be only one, London-Birmingham until 2033 – is diminished.
In the north, all of the cities served by HS2 will have integrated city centre stations, following the shift of thinking at Sheffield and, earlier in the year, at Leeds. But overall, the challenge to ensure the highest levels of performance reliability and punctuality on HS2 gets just a little harder. Perturbation of delays on the existing network transmitted via through services on to HS2 would be unwelcome.
Unspecified train control system
The HS2 infrastructure includes an as yet unspecified train control system that eliminates trackside signalling. With its trains equipped with the suite of goodies that Network Rail aspires to implement through the digital rail ‘revolution’, it could make sense to prioritise digital train control systems on some of the ‘classic’ routes over which HS2 services will operate.
Examples would be the West Coast Main Line north of Crewe, where from 2027 onwards there will be a need to accommodate an increased number of trains on already busy routes that are partially two-track, partially four-track, to Manchester and on the lengthy cross-border route though Warrington, Preston and Carlisle to Glasgow and Edinburgh.
The first phase of HS2, from London to Birmingham and Lichfield, is in the final stages of the Parliamentary process. With Royal Assent possible at the year-end (or more likely, in early 2017), the prospect is for construction to start next year. Thousands of jobs would be lost if the government were to falter at this late stage, and many would begin to doubt if Britain is indeed ‘open for business’. The rail industry – just as other parts of the economy – craves certainty, and hopefully it won’t have long to wait to get it.
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